Aims and Scope of the Journal Economic & Financial Modelling

Economic & Financial Modelling presents recent advances in all aspects of economic modelling. It is intended that the journal should act as a forum for new developments in different aspects of economic and financial modelling – covering national macroeconomic models and related topics; models of international trade; general equilibrium, microeconomic and econometric simulation models; methodological aspects of model building; dynamic games, rational and adaptive expectations; and reports in areas including finance, agriculture, energy and natural resources. It is also one of the aims of this journal to bring closer the work of economic modellers to that of non-modellers.

Among the papers published in Economic & Financial Modelling


  • Monetary Policy Amidst NAFTA Negotiations and Other Sources of Uncertainty
    Javier Guzman Calafell, Deputy Governor, Central Bank of Mexico
  • End of QE and Rising Interest Rates: Implications for Advanced and Emerging Economies
    Javier Guzman Calafell, Deputy Governor, Central Bank of Mexico
  • Changes in Global Labour Markets
    Bank for International Settlements
  • The Economic Policy Outlook in Europe
    Jan Smets, Governor of the National Bank of Belgium & European Central Bank Governing Council Member
  • The Principal-Agent Model
    Gareth Myles, University of Adelaide, Australia, and Chris Heady, University of Kent, UK
  • Small and Medium-sized Enterprises and the Financial Sector
    Luigi Federico Signorini, Deputy Governor of Bank of Italy
  • Designing Incentives: Tax Compliance versus Financial Regulation Compliance
    Gareth Myles, University of Adelaide, and Chris Heady, University of Kent, UK
  • VaR Forecasting: Daily versus Intradaily Data
    Ralf Ferdinand Woehrle, Frankfurt University of Applied Sciences, Germany
  • Regulating the Financial Sector
    John Ashford, European Economics & Financial Centre
  • Anchoring of Inflation Expectations
    Tomasz Lyziak and Maritta Paloviita, European Central Bank
  • The U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy
    Loretta J. Mester, President, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
  • Balance between Risk and Efficiency: the Case of Iceland
    Arnor Sighvatsson, Deputy Governor, Central Bank of Iceland
  • Global Economic Outlook: Forecasting as a Three-Stage Process
    Paul Sheard, Standard & Poor’s, New York
  • Forecasting Errors on the Italian Economy
    Paolo Mameli, Intesa Sanpaolo Bank, Milan
  • Global Implications of Capital Account Liberalisation in China
    John Hooley, Bank of England
  • Covariance Matrix Forecasting Using Intraday Data
    Ralf Ferdinand Woehrle, Frankfurt University of Applied Sciences, Germany
  • Fed Taper and Emerging Markets
    Peter Hooper, Matthew Luzzetti, & Torsten Slok, Deutsche Bank, Frankfurt
  • Inflation in Japan and the UK
    E. Ballesteros and H. Scobie, European Economics & Financial Centre
  • Methodology for Computation of Consumer Price Indices in Italy
    ISTAT (Statistics Institute of Italy), Rome
  • The Decline of the West in Search of Lost Identity:New Challenges and Strategies in an Era of Global Shifts
    Gianni De Michelis, former Italian Foreign Minister
  • Overcoming a Financial Crisis and Taking the Road Forward:the Case of Iceland
    Mar Gudmundsson, Governor, Central Bank of Iceland
  • False Discoveries in Performances of UK Mutual Funds in Asian Sectors
    X. Lucas Liu, University of Bath, UK
  • A Global Early Warning System for Monitoring Global Risks
    Akira Onishi, Soka University, Japan
  • Financial Crises and Policy Measures
    H. Scobie, Chairman, European Economics & Financial Centre
  • The Application and Limits of Sovereign Debt Brakes
    Colin Ellis, University of Birmingham, UK
  • Sovereign Rating Methodology: Master Criteria
    David Riley, Tony Stringer, Richard Fox & Andrew Colquhoun, Fitch Ratings, New York
  • Prospects for the Global Economic Recovery
    Andrew Sentence, Member, Monetary Policy Committee, Bank of England
  • The Predictive Abilities of the New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing survey
    Richard Deitz & Charles Steindel, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
  • Monetary Policy under Normal Conditions in the UK, Eurozone and the US
    H. Scobie, Chairman, European Economics and Financial Centre
  • Forecasting Risk and Return from Order Information
    Steve E. Satchell & Stephen M. Wright, Birkbeck College, University of London
  • Sources and Characteristics of Foreign Exchange Reserve in China
    Yan Haiting, People’s Bank of China
  • Basel II Supervisory Formula
    Martin Hansen & Krishnan Ramadurai, Fitch Ratings, New York
  • Could a Systemic Regulator Have Foreseen the Current Crisis?
    Eric S. Rosengren, President, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
  • Monetary Policy with Close-to-Zero Interest Rates
    H. Scobie, A. Lindenberg & S. Daley, European Economics and Financial Centre
  • Managing Risk: The Role of a Central Bank in a Financial Crisis
    Jose Manuel Gonzalez-Paramo, Executive Board Member, European Central Bank
  • A Model of Hierarchical Regulation Control
    Ensar Yilmaz, Yildiz Technical University, Turkey
  • Learning from the Financial Crisis
    John Gieve, Deputy Governor, Bank of England
  • Modelling Financial and Trade Liberalisation Impact on Emerging Markets: An Application to Turkey
    S.M. Samadian, University of Westminster Business School, UK
  • Phemenology of Bubbles, Crashes, and Extreme Events in Financial Markets
    Philip Bond, Oxford University
  • A Multiple Period of Gaussian Jump to Default Risk Model
    Gary Dunn, Financial Services Authority, UK
  • Forward Looking Inflation Targeting: A Model Applied to Aggregate European Data
    Nicholas Apergis, University of Piraeus, Stephen M. Miller, University of Nevada Las Vegas, Alexandros Panethimitakis, University of Athens, & Athanassios Vamvakidis, International Monetary Fund
  • Mixed-Asset Portfolio Analysis with Different Real Estate Sector in the US
    Shuyun Huang, London School of Economics, University of London
  • Statistical Modelling of Cash and Bond Indices
    N.L. Feng, University College, University of London
  • Least-Squares Filter versus Hodrick-Prescott Filter
    Hans-Jurg Buttler, Swiss National Bank & University of Zurich
  • Using the Gap Statistic to Find the Correct Number of Mutual Fund Styles
    Paul Lajbcygier & Mei Ong, Monash University, Australia
  • Monetary Policy in an Uncertain World
    Charles Bean, Chief Economist & Executive Director, Bank of England
  • Credit Default Swap Basis: The Relationship between Cash and Synthetic Credit Markets
    M. Choudhry, KBC Bank
  • Bond Yields and Economic Dynamics in Emerging Markets
    Ralph Sueppel, BlueCrest Capital Management, London
  • The 2001 Recession and the Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Identifying Business Cycle Turning Points
    Charles L. Evans, Chin Te Liu & Genevieve Pham-Kanter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
  • Guidelines for Conduct of Macroprudential Policies
    Charlotte Wheeler, European Economics & Financial Centre
  • The Detection of Market Abuse on Financial Markets: A Quantitative Approach
    Marcello Minnena, Financial Regulatory Authority of Italy (Consob)
  • A Robust Cross-Sectional Factor Modeling Approach to Equity Forecast Construction
    Steven E. Satchell & Stephen M. Wright, Birkbeck College, University of London
  • Competition and Efficiency in Banking International Comparisons
    Jacob A. Bikker, Central Bank of the Netherlands, & Jaap W.B. Bos, Utrecht School of Economics
  • Alternative Indices of Apartment Rents in West Germany
    Johannes Hoffmann & Claudia Kurz, Deutsche Bundesbank, Frankfurt
  • US Pension Reform Revisited: Impact on Market Dynamics
    Louise Purtle & Glenn Reynolds, CreditSights, New York
  • Trading Risk Management: Practical Applications to Emerging Markets
    Mazin A.M. Al Janabi, Al Akhawayn University, Ifrane, Morocco
  • Market Risk in Commodity Markets:A Switching Regime Approach
    Timotheos Angelidis & Alexandros Benos, University of Piraeus, Greece
  • Risky Assets and Hedging in Emerging Markets
    Octave Jokung, EDHEC Business School, Lille, France
  • Eurex Derivative Products in Alternative Investments: The Case For Hedge Funds
    Thomas Shneeweis & Hossein Kazemi, Isenberg School of Management, University of Massachusetts, & Vassilis Karavas, Schneeweis Partners
  • Modelling the Implied Probability of the Stock Market Movements
    Martin Schjeicher & Ernst Glatzer, National Bank of Austria
  • Orthogonal Polynomial Approach for Estimating the Term Structure of Interest Rates
    Hans-Jurg Buttler, Swiss National Bank & University of Zurich
  • Danish Mortgage Bonds: Models for Estimating Prepayments
    Martin Gregerson, Realkredit Danmark, Denmark
  • A Short-Term Macro-Econometric Forecasting Tool Based on EU Business and Consumer Surveys
    David-Pascal Dion, University of Paris Dauphine, & Andreas Kolodziejak, European Commission, Brussels
  • The GIRM:A Global Interest Rate Model
    Adrian Orr & Paul Conway, Westpac Institutional Bank, New Zealand
  • Gold Hedging in Practice
    John Wixely, Standard Bank, London
  • Macroeconomic Shocks and Stock Market Activity in Greece
    George Hondroyiannis, Bank of Greece
  • The Behaviour of the South African Rand
    Petrus Potgieter, University of South Africa, Pretoria
  • Measures of Competition and Concentration in the Banking Industry: a Review of the Literature
    Jacob A. Bikker & Katharina Haaf, Central Bank of the Netherlands
  • The Behavior of the Euro versus other Currencies
    H. Scobie, Chairman, European Economics and Financial Centre
  • The Size of an Open Economy and Interest Rates: A General Model
    Ignacio Valero Perandones, Universidad Complutense de Madrid
  • Monetary Impact on Exchange Rate Volatility
    Adam Koronowski, Collegium Mazovia Innovative University, Siedlce, Poland
  • Multicriteria Judgments for Project Ranking: An Integrated Methodology
    Yorgos Goletsis, Dimitris Th. Askounis & Jogh Psarras, National Technical University of Athens, Greece
  • A Model of French Household Portfolio Selection
    Catherine Augory, CDC IXIS, Michel Boutillier, University of Paris X and CDC IXIS, & Bruno Sejourne, University of Angers, France, and CDC IXIS
  • A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of Taxes and Double Dividend:An Application to the Mexican Carbon Tax
    Maria Eugenia Ibarraran Viniegra, Universidad de Las Americas, Puebla, Mexico, & Roy Boyd, Ohio University, Athens, Ohio
  • The Role of EU Structural Funds in the Development of the European Regions Lagging Behind
    Nicolas Sarantis & E.G. Lolos, Bank of Greece & Panteion University of Athens, & Alexander Th. Theodoulides, Agropole Ltd, Athens, Greece
  • Estimating Monthly GDP in a General Kalman Filter Framework: Evidence from Switzerland
    Nicholas A. Couche, University of California at Berkeley, & Martin K. Hess, Instituto Tecnologico Autonomo de Mexico, Mexico City
  • Modelling Inflation: an Application to Estonia
    U. Sepp, A. Vesilind & U.Kaasik, Bank of Estonia
  • Improving the Process of Forecasting
    Shaw Chen & Jeffery Jarrett, University of Rhode Island, Kingston
  • The Term Structure of Expected Inflation Rates
    Hans-Jurg Buttler, Swiss National Bank & University of Zurich
  • A Simple Factor Demand Model and Capacity Effects
    Lars Dreier Kristensen & Dan Knudsen, National Bank of Denmark
  • The Effects of Foreign Direct Investment on Trade Flows: Some Evidence for Spain, 1977-1992
    Oscar Bajo-Rubio, Public University of Navarra, & Maria Montero-Munoz, University of Vigo, Spain
  • Euro Area-Wide and Country Modelling at the Start of EMU
    Jerome Henry, European Central Bank
  • Unemployment, Advertisement and Consumer Demand: A Theoretical and Consumer Demand: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis
    Fumimasa Hamada, Tokyo International University, Japan
  • Stakeholders and Shareholders
    Saziye Gazioglu & W. David McCausland, University of Aberdeen, UK
  • A Dynamic Model of Capital Flows
    S.M. Samadian & G. Croft, University of Westminster, UK
  • On General Model of Structured Amortization Schedules
    Robert Neuman, Alm. Brand Bank, & Poul Wolffsen, Roskilde University, Denmark
  • Jointly Optimal Inflation Tax, Income Tax Structure and Transfers
    Preston J. Miller, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
  • A Structural Economic Model of the Maltese Economy
    Gordon Cordina, Central Bank of Malta
  • Inflation and Unemployment in an Open Economy
    M. Dombrecht & P. Moes, National Bank of Belgium
  • Monetary Policy Formulation in Emerging Economies
    Tim Laxton, European Economics & Financial Centre
  • Modelling Forward Foreign Currency Market Volatility in Small Countries: the Australian Case
    Bruce Felmingham & Peter Mansfield, University of Tasmania, Australia
  • Bankruptcy and Shutdown Rule: an Analysis of Managerial Decision Making
    Harlan D. Platt, Majorie B. Platt & Mark Kazarosian, Northeastern University, Boston
  • Transition to EMU and its Impact on Fixed Income Investment
    Nicholas Gaussel, Jean Pierre Leoni & Valerie Plagnol, Credit Commercial de France, Paris
  • The GEM – E3 General Equilibrium Model for the European Union
    P.Capros, T. Georgakopoulos, National Technical University of Athens, Denise Van Regemorter & Stef Proost, Catholic University Leuven, T. Schmidt, Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) & K. Conrad, University of Mannheim, Germany
  • On the Many Elasticities of Labour Demand: A Small Supply Model for the Belgian Economy
    Pierre Wunsch, Attache to the Belgian Secretary of State
  • Fiscal Transfer Payments: Implications of US Structure for the European Monetary Union
    H. Scobie & T. Day, European Economics and Financial Centre
  • Modelling of Corporate Investment Decisions: An Application to Philips
    S.I. Cohen & F.W. van Tongeren, Erasmus University, Rotterdam
  • The Temporary Solution of a Linear Differential Model under Perfect Foresight
    Alejandro Balbas de la Corte, University of Complutense, Madrid, & Arturo Gonzalez- Romero, Ministry of Industry and Energy, Spain
  • An Empirical Model for Spanish Foreign Trade
    Ignacio Mauleon & Luis Sastre, University of Salamanca, Spain
  • National Savings, the Current Account & Aging Population: a Pension Fund Model
    Jacob Bikker, European Monetary Institute, Frankfurt
  • Formation of Economic Policy in the US
    Martin Feldstein, President, NBER & Professor of Economics, Harvard University, Boston
  • The University of Pennsylvania Model for High-Frequency Economic Forecasting
    Lawrence R. Klein & J. Yong Park, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania
  • An Econometric Model of Bank Failure
    Shelagh Heffernan, City University Business School, London
  • Implications of EMU for the Global Emerging Markets
    H. Scobie, Chairman, European Economics & Financial Centre
  • Testing Balance Sheet Linkages within the Spanish Savings Banks Industry: A Multivariate Approach
    Mariam Camarero, Univeritat Jaume I, Castellon, Spain, Vicente Esteve, Centre de Recherché et Development en Economique (CRDE) Universite de Montreal and University of Valencia, Spain, & Cecilio Tamarit, University of Valencia and Valencian Savings Banks Federation, Valencia, Spain
  • Modelling the Firm’s Price and Quality Strategies in Conditions of Isolation and Duopoly
    Robert E. Kuenne, Princeton University, New Jersey
  • Efficiency of Combinations of Forecasts Using Inequality Restricted Least Squares
    Celal Aksu & Sevket I. Gunter, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania
  • Modelling an Index of the French Capital Market
    Douglas Wood & Bhaskar Dasgupta, Manchester Business School, UK
  • European Monetary Union:Single Currency Feasible without the ERM
    H. Scobie, Chairman, European Economics and Financial Centre
  • Technical Change in Australia During the 1980’s: Simulations with a Computable General Equilibrium Model
    B.R. Paramenter, G.A. Meager & P.J. Higgs, Monash University, Australia, and SUNCORP Investments, Brisbane, Australia