Aims and Scope of the Journal Economic & Financial Modelling
Economic & Financial Modelling presents recent advances in all aspects of economic modelling. It is intended that the journal should act as a forum for new developments in different aspects of economic and financial modelling – covering national macroeconomic models and related topics; models of international trade; general equilibrium, microeconomic and econometric simulation models; methodological aspects of model building; dynamic games, rational and adaptive expectations; and reports in areas including finance, agriculture, energy and natural resources. It is also one of the aims of this journal to bring closer the work of economic modellers to that of non-modellers.
Among the articles published in Economic & Financial Modelling
Factors Impacting Secondary Bond Markets
Andy Hill, Elizabeth Callaghan and Gabriel Callsen, International Credit Markets Association
On the Latin American Term Premiums
Manuel Ramos-Francia, Deputy Governor, Central Bank of Mexico
Methodology for Computation of EU Business and Consumer Surveys
European Commission
Model Methodology and Framework for Supervisory Stress Test of the US Federal Reserve
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
The Maze of Brexit Uncertainty: Economic and Financial Implications for the UK Economy
H. Scobie and N. Dashiell, European Economics & Financial Centre
The Transition to Risk-free Rates in the Bond Market
Paul Richards, International Credit Markets Association
International Coordination of Macroprudential Policies
Manuel Ramos-Francia, Deputy Governor, Central Bank of Mexico
Monetary Policy Amidst NAFTA Negotiations and Other Sources of Uncertainty
Javier Guzman Calafell, Deputy Governor, Central Bank of Mexico
End of QE and Rising Interest Rates: Implications for Advanced and Emerging Economies
Javier Guzman Calafell, Deputy Governor, Central Bank of Mexico
Changes in Global Labour Markets
Bank for International Settlements
The Economic Policy Outlook in Europe
Jan Smets, Governor of the National Bank of Belgium & European Central Bank Governing Council Member
The Principal-Agent Model
Gareth Myles, University of Adelaide, Australia, and Chris Heady, University of Kent, UK
Small and Medium-sized Enterprises and the Financial Sector
Luigi Federico Signorini, Deputy Governor of Bank of Italy
Designing Incentives: Tax Compliance versus Financial Regulation Compliance
Gareth Myles, University of Adelaide, and Chris Heady, University of Kent, UK
VaR Forecasting: Daily versus Intradaily Data
Ralf Ferdinand Woehrle, Frankfurt University of Applied Sciences, Germany
Regulating the Financial Sector
John Ashford, European Economics & Financial Centre
Anchoring of Inflation Expectations
Tomasz Lyziak and Maritta Paloviita, European Central Bank
The U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy
Loretta J. Mester, President, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Balance between Risk and Efficiency: the Case of Iceland
Arnor Sighvatsson, Deputy Governor, Central Bank of Iceland
Global Economic Outlook: Forecasting as a Three-Stage Process
Paul Sheard, Standard & Poor’s, New York
Forecasting Errors on the Italian Economy
Paolo Mameli, Intesa Sanpaolo Bank, Milan
Global Implications of Capital Account Liberalisation in China
John Hooley, Bank of England
Covariance Matrix Forecasting Using Intraday Data
Ralf Ferdinand Woehrle, Frankfurt University of Applied Sciences, Germany
Fed Taper and Emerging Markets
Peter Hooper, Matthew Luzzetti, & Torsten Slok, Deutsche Bank, Frankfurt
Inflation in Japan and the UK
E. Ballesteros and H. Scobie, European Economics & Financial Centre
Methodology for Computation of Consumer Price Indices in Italy
ISTAT (Statistics Institute of Italy), Rome
The Decline of the West in Search of Lost Identity:New Challenges and Strategies in an Era of Global Shifts
Gianni De Michelis, former Italian Foreign Minister
Overcoming a Financial Crisis and Taking the Road Forward:the Case of Iceland
Mar Gudmundsson, Governor, Central Bank of Iceland
False Discoveries in Performances of UK Mutual Funds in Asian Sectors
X. Lucas Liu, University of Bath, UK
A Global Early Warning System for Monitoring Global Risks
Akira Onishi, Soka University, Japan
Financial Crises and Policy Measures
H. Scobie, Chairman, European Economics & Financial Centre
The Application and Limits of Sovereign Debt Brakes
Colin Ellis, University of Birmingham, UK
Sovereign Rating Methodology: Master Criteria
David Riley, Tony Stringer, Richard Fox & Andrew Colquhoun, Fitch Ratings, New York
Prospects for the Global Economic Recovery
Andrew Sentence, Member, Monetary Policy Committee, Bank of England
The Predictive Abilities of the New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing survey
Richard Deitz & Charles Steindel, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Monetary Policy under Normal Conditions in the UK, Eurozone and the US
H. Scobie, Chairman, European Economics and Financial Centre
Forecasting Risk and Return from Order Information
Steve E. Satchell & Stephen M. Wright, Birkbeck College, University of London
Sources and Characteristics of Foreign Exchange Reserve in China
Yan Haiting, People’s Bank of China
Basel II Supervisory Formula
Martin Hansen & Krishnan Ramadurai, Fitch Ratings, New York
Could a Systemic Regulator Have Foreseen the Current Crisis?
Eric S. Rosengren, President, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
Monetary Policy with Close-to-Zero Interest Rates
H. Scobie, A. Lindenberg & S. Daley, European Economics and Financial Centre
Managing Risk: The Role of a Central Bank in a Financial Crisis
Jose Manuel Gonzalez-Paramo, Executive Board Member, European Central Bank
A Model of Hierarchical Regulation Control
Ensar Yilmaz, Yildiz Technical University, Turkey
Learning from the Financial Crisis
John Gieve, Deputy Governor, Bank of England
Modelling Financial and Trade Liberalisation Impact on Emerging Markets: An Application to Turkey
S.M. Samadian, University of Westminster Business School, UK
Phemenology of Bubbles, Crashes, and Extreme Events in Financial Markets
Philip Bond, Oxford University
A Multiple Period of Gaussian Jump to Default Risk Model
Gary Dunn, Financial Services Authority, UK
Forward Looking Inflation Targeting: A Model Applied to Aggregate European Data
Nicholas Apergis, University of Piraeus, Stephen M. Miller, University of Nevada Las Vegas, Alexandros Panethimitakis, University of Athens, & Athanassios Vamvakidis, International Monetary Fund
Mixed-Asset Portfolio Analysis with Different Real Estate Sector in the US
Shuyun Huang, London School of Economics, University of London
Statistical Modelling of Cash and Bond Indices
N.L. Feng, University College, University of London
Least-Squares Filter versus Hodrick-Prescott Filter
Hans-Jurg Buttler, Swiss National Bank & University of Zurich
Using the Gap Statistic to Find the Correct Number of Mutual Fund Styles
Paul Lajbcygier & Mei Ong, Monash University, Australia
Monetary Policy in an Uncertain World
Charles Bean, Chief Economist & Executive Director, Bank of England
Credit Default Swap Basis: The Relationship between Cash and Synthetic Credit Markets
M. Choudhry, KBC Bank
Bond Yields and Economic Dynamics in Emerging Markets
Ralph Sueppel, BlueCrest Capital Management, London
The 2001 Recession and the Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Identifying Business Cycle Turning Points
Charles L. Evans, Chin Te Liu & Genevieve Pham-Kanter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Guidelines for Conduct of Macroprudential Policies
Charlotte Wheeler, European Economics & Financial Centre
The Detection of Market Abuse on Financial Markets: A Quantitative Approach
Marcello Minnena, Financial Regulatory Authority of Italy (Consob)
A Robust Cross-Sectional Factor Modeling Approach to Equity Forecast Construction
Steven E. Satchell & Stephen M. Wright, Birkbeck College, University of London
Competition and Efficiency in Banking International Comparisons
Jacob A. Bikker, Central Bank of the Netherlands, & Jaap W.B. Bos, Utrecht School of Economics
Alternative Indices of Apartment Rents in West Germany
Johannes Hoffmann & Claudia Kurz, Deutsche Bundesbank, Frankfurt
US Pension Reform Revisited: Impact on Market Dynamics
Louise Purtle & Glenn Reynolds, CreditSights, New York
Trading Risk Management: Practical Applications to Emerging Markets
Mazin A.M. Al Janabi, Al Akhawayn University, Ifrane, Morocco
Market Risk in Commodity Markets:A Switching Regime Approach
Timotheos Angelidis & Alexandros Benos, University of Piraeus, Greece
Risky Assets and Hedging in Emerging Markets
Octave Jokung, EDHEC Business School, Lille, France
Eurex Derivative Products in Alternative Investments: The Case For Hedge Funds
Thomas Shneeweis & Hossein Kazemi, Isenberg School of Management, University of Massachusetts, & Vassilis Karavas, Schneeweis Partners
Modelling the Implied Probability of the Stock Market Movements
Martin Schjeicher & Ernst Glatzer, National Bank of Austria
Orthogonal Polynomial Approach for Estimating the Term Structure of Interest Rates
Hans-Jurg Buttler, Swiss National Bank & University of Zurich
Danish Mortgage Bonds: Models for Estimating Prepayments
Martin Gregerson, Realkredit Danmark, Denmark
A Short-Term Macro-Econometric Forecasting Tool Based on EU Business and Consumer Surveys
David-Pascal Dion, University of Paris Dauphine, & Andreas Kolodziejak, European Commission, Brussels
The GIRM:A Global Interest Rate Model
Adrian Orr & Paul Conway, Westpac Institutional Bank, New Zealand
Gold Hedging in Practice
John Wixely, Standard Bank, London
Macroeconomic Shocks and Stock Market Activity in Greece
George Hondroyiannis, Bank of Greece
The Behaviour of the South African Rand
Petrus Potgieter, University of South Africa, Pretoria
Measures of Competition and Concentration in the Banking Industry: a Review of the Literature
Jacob A. Bikker & Katharina Haaf, Central Bank of the Netherlands
The Behavior of the Euro versus other Currencies
H. Scobie, Chairman, European Economics and Financial Centre
The Size of an Open Economy and Interest Rates: A General Model
Ignacio Valero Perandones, Universidad Complutense de Madrid
Monetary Impact on Exchange Rate Volatility
Adam Koronowski, Collegium Mazovia Innovative University, Siedlce, Poland
Multicriteria Judgments for Project Ranking: An Integrated Methodology
Yorgos Goletsis, Dimitris Th. Askounis & Jogh Psarras, National Technical University of Athens, Greece
A Model of French Household Portfolio Selection
Catherine Augory, CDC IXIS, Michel Boutillier, University of Paris X and CDC IXIS, & Bruno Sejourne, University of Angers, France, and CDC IXIS
A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of Taxes and Double Dividend:An Application to the Mexican Carbon Tax
Maria Eugenia Ibarraran Viniegra, Universidad de Las Americas, Puebla, Mexico, & Roy Boyd, Ohio University, Athens, Ohio
The Role of EU Structural Funds in the Development of the European Regions Lagging Behind
Nicolas Sarantis & E.G. Lolos, Bank of Greece & Panteion University of Athens, & Alexander Th. Theodoulides, Agropole Ltd, Athens, Greece
Estimating Monthly GDP in a General Kalman Filter Framework: Evidence from Switzerland
Nicholas A. Couche, University of California at Berkeley, & Martin K. Hess, Instituto Tecnologico Autonomo de Mexico, Mexico City
Modelling Inflation: an Application to Estonia
U. Sepp, A. Vesilind & U.Kaasik, Bank of Estonia
Improving the Process of Forecasting
Shaw Chen & Jeffery Jarrett, University of Rhode Island, Kingston
The Term Structure of Expected Inflation Rates
Hans-Jurg Buttler, Swiss National Bank & University of Zurich
A Simple Factor Demand Model and Capacity Effects
Lars Dreier Kristensen & Dan Knudsen, National Bank of Denmark
The Effects of Foreign Direct Investment on Trade Flows: Some Evidence for Spain, 1977-1992
Oscar Bajo-Rubio, Public University of Navarra, & Maria Montero-Munoz, University of Vigo, Spain
Euro Area-Wide and Country Modelling at the Start of EMU
Jerome Henry, European Central Bank
Unemployment, Advertisement and Consumer Demand: A Theoretical and Consumer Demand: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis
Fumimasa Hamada, Tokyo International University, Japan
Stakeholders and Shareholders
Saziye Gazioglu & W. David McCausland, University of Aberdeen, UK
A Dynamic Model of Capital Flows
S.M. Samadian & G. Croft, University of Westminster, UK
On General Model of Structured Amortization Schedules
Robert Neuman, Alm. Brand Bank, & Poul Wolffsen, Roskilde University, Denmark
Jointly Optimal Inflation Tax, Income Tax Structure and Transfers
Preston J. Miller, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
A Structural Economic Model of the Maltese Economy
Gordon Cordina, Central Bank of Malta
Inflation and Unemployment in an Open Economy
M. Dombrecht & P. Moes, National Bank of Belgium
Monetary Policy Formulation in Emerging Economies
Tim Laxton, European Economics & Financial Centre
Modelling Forward Foreign Currency Market Volatility in Small Countries: the Australian Case
Bruce Felmingham & Peter Mansfield, University of Tasmania, Australia
Bankruptcy and Shutdown Rule: an Analysis of Managerial Decision Making
Harlan D. Platt, Majorie B. Platt & Mark Kazarosian, Northeastern University, Boston
Transition to EMU and its Impact on Fixed Income Investment
Nicholas Gaussel, Jean Pierre Leoni & Valerie Plagnol, Credit Commercial de France, Paris
The GEM – E3 General Equilibrium Model for the European Union
P.Capros, T. Georgakopoulos, National Technical University of Athens, Denise Van Regemorter & Stef Proost, Catholic University Leuven, T. Schmidt, Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) & K. Conrad, University of Mannheim, Germany
On the Many Elasticities of Labour Demand: A Small Supply Model for the Belgian Economy
Pierre Wunsch, Attache to the Belgian Secretary of State
Fiscal Transfer Payments: Implications of US Structure for the European Monetary Union
H. Scobie & T. Day, European Economics and Financial Centre
Modelling of Corporate Investment Decisions: An Application to Philips
S.I. Cohen & F.W. van Tongeren, Erasmus University, Rotterdam
The Temporary Solution of a Linear Differential Model under Perfect Foresight
Alejandro Balbas de la Corte, University of Complutense, Madrid, & Arturo Gonzalez- Romero, Ministry of Industry and Energy, Spain
An Empirical Model for Spanish Foreign Trade
Ignacio Mauleon & Luis Sastre, University of Salamanca, Spain
National Savings, the Current Account & Aging Population: a Pension Fund Model
Jacob Bikker, European Monetary Institute, Frankfurt
Formation of Economic Policy in the US
Martin Feldstein, President, NBER & Professor of Economics, Harvard University, Boston
The University of Pennsylvania Model for High-Frequency Economic Forecasting
Lawrence R. Klein & J. Yong Park, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania
An Econometric Model of Bank Failure
Shelagh Heffernan, City University Business School, London
Implications of EMU for the Global Emerging Markets
H. Scobie, Chairman, European Economics & Financial Centre
Testing Balance Sheet Linkages within the Spanish Savings Banks Industry: A Multivariate Approach
Mariam Camarero, Univeritat Jaume I, Castellon, Spain, Vicente Esteve, Centre de Recherché et Development en Economique (CRDE) Universite de Montreal and University of Valencia, Spain, & Cecilio Tamarit, University of Valencia and Valencian Savings Banks Federation, Valencia, Spain
The RUNS Global Trade Model
Jean-Marc Burniaux and Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, OECD
Modelling the Firm’s Price and Quality Strategies in Conditions of Isolation and Duopoly
Robert E. Kuenne, Princeton University, New Jersey
Efficiency of Combinations of Forecasts Using Inequality Restricted Least Squares
Celal Aksu & Sevket I. Gunter, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania
Modelling an Index of the French Capital Market
Douglas Wood & Bhaskar Dasgupta, Manchester Business School, UK
European Monetary Union: Single Currency Feasible without the ERM
H. Scobie, Chairman, European Economics and Financial Centre
Technical Change in Australia During the 1980’s: Simulations with a Computable General Equilibrium Model
B.R. Paramenter, G.A. Meager & P.J. Higgs, Monash University, Australia, and SUNCORP Investments, Brisbane, Australia
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